I’ll be frank: I’m highly skeptical about HAMILTON without even having seen it. Partially due, I add as my own schizophrenic retort, to the fact that its Public Theater run is sold out! That’s the why-I-haven’t-seen-it part, not the skeptical part. But this triumph of box office bucks must mean a sweep at the Tony’s and an unlimited B’Way transfer-run that rivals …MORMOM, right? Right? I’m not so sure… Here’s the thing: remember BLOODY BLOODY ANDREW JACKSON? The truth is, it matters very little if I like the piece or if anyone who frequents the Public Theater likes it, when we’re talking about Broadway. The two demographics of theater-goers are completely polar. Sorry, but the TKTS crowd that keep musicals like CHICAGO afloat for an eternity or TELEVISION fans of Matt Stone and Trey Parker are hardly those downtown hipster-vivants who patron the Public.

Broadway theater rentals are enormously expensive—I heard in the Times or somewhere vaguely reputable that this transferring production is budgeted upwards of 12 Million dollars. And while I’m on my Negative Nancy kick, isn’t the producer the same guy whose LAST SHIP just plummeted to a watery grave? I mean, Lin-Manuel Miranda does not have the box office draw of Sting, despite the fact that I think he’s downright charming and enormously clever. I loved IN THE HEIGHTS, which is a very, very different kind of show—certainly, no rap musical. It had a broad appeal like a modern day West Side Story. Take it from a playwright who writes head-y pieces—mainstream audiences don’t want to shell out huge sums to think so much. And I say that with the heaviest heart.

Also, we’ve had rap musicals before—people have even performed the Bard’s work as such… Do I dare remind you of BOMB-ITTY OF ERRORS or Chicago’s HIP HOP SHAKESPEARE? None of these pieces were commercially successful at a level that would sustain a Broadway run. Oh, and while we’re at it, when was the last time 1776 had a Broadway revival? I mean, why not? It’s a very popular book and score musical that frequently gets performed at high schools and community and even regional theaters across the country—that’s a built-in audience right there. I think that American history doesn’t appeal, sadly, to audiences the way, say, a show about women in prison or quirky Mormon missionaries, do.

I hope I’m wrong. Quite frankly, I’m tired of recycled and adapted and rebooted bologna. But here’s my prediction (only a prediction—I’m sure I’m dead wrong): I think Urban 1776—I mean, HAMILTON—will transfer with a musket bang! I think it will have a great opening and fairly good revues. I’m certain someone will cry “too long—needed to be trimmed”, because they already are, and the creative team including Oskar Eustis seem to be responding “Nay” in some disgruntled showing of colonial rebellion. L-MM, for the love of the forefathers, please bring it down to two hours. Continuing my prediction… I think it will even run for a bit (I mean, they have to recoup 12M—good luck with that one) and then I think it will close, earlier than hoped for, in debt. And I certainly don’t see the University of Kansas finding the hip hop talent among the student body to put up this creation, supporting some longterm recouping coup. As a final note—I’m dying to see it. I think I’ll probably like it. But who cares?—I liked SIDE SHOW, too. Take aim, Mr. Burr.